Thursday, April 9, 2009

Dealing with the black swans

Not having got around to reading it, I suppose I'm slightly sceptical about Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" but only because his core thesis seem to me a statement of the blindingly obvious.  Life is less predictable than we like to pretend.

However, a tip of the proverbial to David Hepworth's blog for pointing me towards Taleb's 'Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world' at which says pretty much everything that needs saying about the current state of the world economy.  Hepworth's conclusion is that 'cleverness is overrated'.  That's probably not quite fair.  In my experience, there's a lot to be said for cleverness.  But then my definition of 'clever' wouldn't encompass, say,  Structured Investment Vehicles


1. Ian said...

Hi, I am writing an offbeat novel called The Mongolian Girl and I'm currently serializing it on my blog. I was googling to see if there was anything similar out there and I came across your blog.

2. Michael+Walters said...

Thanks, Ian - your website looks fascinating. I look forward to reading the book.

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